Analisis Perbandingan Performa Metode Simple Moving Average dan Exponential Moving Average untuk Peramalan Jumlah Penderita Covid-19
Abstract
Pada penelitian bertujuan untuk memprediksi jumlah penderita covid-19 menggunakan metode Moving Average (SMA, dan EMA). Pengolahan data tersebut digunakan untuk memprediksi jumlah penderita covid-19. Adapun akurasi permalan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu MAD, MSE, RMSE , dan MAPE. Model Moving Average Model yang akan digunakan pada penelitian ini merupakan metode untuk memperkirakan kondisi pada masa yang akan datang dengan menggunakan kumpulan data-data masa lalu. Periode waktu yang akan dikumpulkan data tersebut dapat berupa Tahunan, Bulanan, Mingguan, bahkan Harian. Hasil pengujian Simple Moving Average (SMA) pada line graph menunjukkan peramalan nilai lebih dekat dengan data real dibandingkan dengan Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Pengunaan SMA 2 hingga SMA5 menunjukkan hasil peramalan SMA 2 paling mendekati dari data real.
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